The Local Council Report / Capital & debt / Debt growth rate · markdown view

Debt growth rate

%/yr · constructed · council-year

This shows how fast the council's total debt is growing (or shrinking) each year, as a percentage. It matters because a council whose debt races upwards year after year is taking on repayment costs that will squeeze its future budgets. A high positive number means debt is piling up quickly — worth asking why; a number near zero or negative means debt is stable or being paid down.

councils
274
median
3.92
q1
0.47
q3
9.2
min
-77.54
max
8,930

Distribution

-26.32343.46

Worst 10

CouncilClassValueIn its class
Maldondistrict8,9301st worst of 156
South Gloucestershireunitary1,0171st worst of 63
Cotswolddistrict407.042nd worst of 156
Rochforddistrict319.953rd worst of 156
Lichfielddistrict228.744th worst of 156
Three Riversdistrict176.155th worst of 156
Newcastle-under-Lymedistrict93.856th worst of 156
South Ribbledistrict66.397th worst of 156
Teignbridgedistrict56.488th worst of 156
Havantdistrict50.399th worst of 156

Best 10

CouncilClassValueIn its class
North Hertfordshiredistrict-77.541st best of 156
Erewashdistrict-37.42nd best of 156
Hertsmeredistrict-37.233rd best of 156
Mole Valleydistrict-22.284th best of 156
Brentwooddistrict-21.595th best of 156
Warringtonunitary-12.251st best of 63
Tunbridge Wellsdistrict-11.046th best of 156
Fyldedistrict-10.877th best of 156
St Albansdistrict-8.788th best of 156
North West Leicestershiredistrict-8.319th best of 156

Definition

namedebt_growth_rate
dataset02-capital-outturn-debt
kindconstructed
typenumeric
unit%/yr
graincouncil-year
rolefeature
source(cfr_end[t] − cfr_end[t−1]) / cfr_end[t−1] — PRU1_prucfrend_amt across PeriodCode years (201903 to 202503) in Capital_time_series_data_wide_24_03_26.csv
period2018-19 to 2024-25 (year-on-year)
missingnessunknown
calculated../calculated/debt-growth-rate.csv
calculated_rows1741
calculated_periods2019-20 to 2024-25
calculated_date2026-08-13
score_notePace of debt build-up is self-normalizing and a proven distress precursor.
peer_groupdistricts (n=186), unitaries (n=63), metropolitan boroughs (n=36), counties (n=26) — scored within each class against its median/IQR

The pace of debt accumulation, measured as year-on-year growth in the Capital Financing Requirement. Sustained double-digit growth marks aggressive capital or commercial strategies of the kind that preceded several council failures. Reorganisations (new unitaries) break the year-on-year formula — growth cannot be computed across an authority boundary change.